Integration of climate change to forest management practices: An analysis of future tree species distribution, ecosystem services and perception of forestry professionals

Abstract

In this study, habitat suitability modelling with MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) software was carried out to analyse current and future distribution of 12 selected tree species in Trabzon and Antalya regional forests in Turkey according to climate change scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Then, in order to reveal the future changes in products and service values of four different ecosystem services selected for the Cerle planning unit, a strategic decision-making model was developed over a 50 years planning horizon using linear programming technique and solved with LINGOTM software. In addition, the perceptions of forestry professionals in 3 countries (Germany, Turkey and Cameroon) with very different ecological characteristics were analysed to evaluate the general awareness in each country. As results, it is found that potential suitable areas for Pinus sylvestris and Quercus spp. will expand in Trabzon region, while in Antalya region there will be a serious decrease for Pinus brutia; but the areas of Quercus spp. and Pinus nigra will be expanded. Four forest functions, namely wood production, carbon storage, soil loss and water production, were associated with different stand parameters in the southern part of the Cerle planning unit in Antalya. Ten alternative planning strategies have been developed to maximize wood production and minimize soil loss. The highest amount of wood and the lowest total amount of soil loss were obtained by Strategies 9 and 10, where adapted species were planted, as 447816.5 m3 and 17263.5 tons. Within the scope of adaptation, 28 different adapted tree species were cited by 69.2% of the respondents in Germany, 12 species by 23% of those in Turkey and 8 species by 10.8% of those in Cameroon. To conclude, it is very crucial to integrate climate change to forest management practices and it is highly recommended to continuously train forest managers on adaptation strategies.